WiseStats db – Packers vs. Bears, Part 2

Yesterday, we looked at the upcoming NFL Conference Championship game between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears. Using WiseStats db to look at historical outcomes, we found that Green Bay is victorious 90.9% of the time when they are 3.5-6.5 point favorites after a road win against a conference opponent. If you placed the same bet on Green Bay every time they played a game in this situation, you’d be turning a profit!

Today is the second part of our look at this game using WiseStats db. This time, we’ll examine some past outcomes to try and determine which team will cover the spread (what is a point spread?).

Green Bay opened up as a 3-point favorite to beat Chicago this Sunday. At most sportsbooks, Green Bay has now become a 3.5-point favorite. So will they beat Chicago by more than 3 points, or will Chicago get within that difference when all is said and done?

When the Green Bay Packers play after coming off a win as a road underdog in the last 5 years, their ATS record is 8-2, a 80% cover rate.

Here is the breakdown to show you what makes this situation “in play” on Sunday:

• Green Bay was a 1-point underdog in their last game in Atlanta against the Falcons
• The Packers won that game in dominating fashion, 48-21

In the last 5 years after Green Bay has won as a road underdog, they’ve covered the spread 80% of the time, making them a favorite to cover against the Bears on Sunday (the letters “ATS” mean “against the spread”).

Interestingly, of the 2 instances where Green Bay did not cover the spread in this situation, one of those times was actually against the Bears in December 2007 in Chicago at Soldier Field.

For this Sunday, though, all signs point to Green Bay covering the 3.5-point spread en route to Superbowl XLV.