Today, we’ll use WiseStats db to take a look at tonight’s game between the NBA’s Orlando Magic as they travel to Indiana to take on the Pacers. The Magic are currently listed at 5-point favorites at most sportsbooks. Here is a very compelling situation that is “in play” tonight:

Since February 26, 2007, the Magic are 13-0 ATS on less than 2 days’ rest after a home game where their opponent shot at least 10 three-pointers and made at least half of them.

This is one of the more complex examples we’ve looked at so far using WiseStats db, so let’s break it down to see why it is “in play”:

• Orlando last played on Monday, meaning they’ve had 1 day of rest going into tonight’s game
• The game on Monday was played in Orlando, so it was a home game
• In that game, Orlando’s opponent (Detroit Pistons) attempted 14 three-point shots, and made 7 of those (exactly half)

In every instance where this situation has come up for the Magic since February 26, 2007 (13 instances), they have covered the spread every single time!

With such a high-performing situation, you would be betting very profitably if you followed it. With WiseStats db, you will be able to find situations like this, follow them, and then be alerted every time the situation is “in play”, making it dead simple for you to bet more intelligently!

Yesterday, we learned the contestants that will face off February 6 at Cowboys Stadium for Superbowl XLV. The Green Bay Packers will meet the Pittsburgh Steelers for all the marbles in Arlington, Texas.

On the road to Superbowl XLV, each team had to take down formidable opponents in the Conference Championships. In the NFC, Green Bay neutralized Chicago through one half of football, ultimately eliminating the Bears at home 21-14. In the AFC, Pittsburgh had similar success through the first half, dominating the Jets 24-3, and survived a late surge by the Jets to hold onto to a 24-19 victory.

Leading up to these games, we used WiseStats db to try and predict the winners of each matchup, as well as the team that would cover the spread. Using historical outcomes to predict future results, WiseStats db correctly predicted 3 of the 4 outcomes. Let’s recap:

• Prediction 1: Green Bay defeats Chicago. Result – WIN.
• Prediction 2: Green Bay covers the spread against Chicago (-3.5). Result – WIN.
• Prediction 3: Pittsburgh defeats New York. Result – WIN.
• Prediction 4: New York covers the spread against Pittsburgh (+3.5). Result: LOSS.

If you had placed a bet for the same amount on each of these outcomes using WiseStats db, you would have had a profitable weekend!

One day following the conclusion of the Conference Championships, most sportsbooks have settled on assigning Green Bay the label of favorite to win Superbowl XLV. Currently, most sportsbooks have Green Bay as 3-point favorites, perhaps overlooking the fact that Pittsburgh has won 2 Superbowls in the last 5 years. As we get closer to the big game, we will look at some “in play” situations for this Superbowl using WiseStats db.

Have you been enjoying these daily emails demonstrating how WiseStats db works? If so, please consider getting a friend or two to visit this post!

With today being game day, we take our fourth and final look at the NFL Conference Championships using WiseStats db, a new tool that allows you to create game situations using historical outcomes to predict the winners!

So far, we’ve looked at situations that suggest that Green Bay beats Chicago en route to Superbowl XLV, and that they will cover the spread in victory. In the AFC, we looked at a situation using WiseStats db that points to the Pittsburgh Steelers defeating the New York Jets later today.

But the question now is, will Pittsburgh cover the spread in their victory, or will the Jets finish within 4 points of the Steelers (the point spread is currently set at 3.5)? Here is an in play situation that may help us answer the question:

When the New York Jets play following a win against an AFC East opponent in the last 5 years, they have covered the spread 80% of the time (8-2).

With New York’s upset over division rival New England Patriots last weekend, the Jets find themselves in this situation for the 11th time in the qpast 5 years. They carry a 6-game streak covering the spread in this situation.

Many observers are predicting a low scoring affair in this game, making it a high likelihood that this one will be decided by a field goal. With New York’s point spread currently set at +3.5, a field goal loss in the game means they still cover the spread! We will find out together in a matter of mere hours.

If you’ve been enjoying these daily posts demonstrating how WiseStats db works, please consider getting a friend or two about this blog.

Enjoy the games today!

- WiseStats db

Today is the third installment in our four-piece look at this weekend’s NFL Conference Championship games. Using WiseStats db to see how teams have performed historically in specific game situations, we’ve seen evidence that Green Bay is likely to prevail against the Chicago Bears, as well as cover the spread on Sunday, currently set at -3.5.

On the other side, the AFC Conference Championship will be decided when the red hot New York Jets roll into Pittsburgh to take on the always-contending Steelers. While the Jets have been successfully playing the role of David in their most recent wins in Indianapolis and New England, Pittsburgh poses a new set of problems that don’t match up quite as well with the Jets’ style of play.

Here is a compelling situation that is “in play” this Sunday:

When the Pittsburgh Steelers play as a home favorite after a home win in the last 5 years, their record is 9-1, a 90% win rate.

Here is the breakdown to show you what makes this situation in play:

• Most sportsbooks have Pittsburgh listed as a -200 favorite to win the game
• The game takes place at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh
• The Steelers’ last game was at home against the Baltimore Ravens
• They won that game against the Ravens, 31-24

Limiting the historical outcomes of this situation to 5 years was done in this case because the nucleus of Pittsburgh’s team from 5 years ago remains in place today: Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, Troy Polamalu, and Heath Miller.

If history is any suggestion, Pittsburgh will cruise on Sunday to their third Superbowl in the last 6 years.

Remember, with WiseStats db, you can search the outcomes of ANY situation your imagination can create!

Yesterday, we looked at the upcoming NFL Conference Championship game between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears. Using WiseStats db to look at historical outcomes, we found that Green Bay is victorious 90.9% of the time when they are 3.5-6.5 point favorites after a road win against a conference opponent. If you placed the same bet on Green Bay every time they played a game in this situation, you’d be turning a profit!

Today is the second part of our look at this game using WiseStats db. This time, we’ll examine some past outcomes to try and determine which team will cover the spread (what is a point spread?).

Green Bay opened up as a 3-point favorite to beat Chicago this Sunday. At most sportsbooks, Green Bay has now become a 3.5-point favorite. So will they beat Chicago by more than 3 points, or will Chicago get within that difference when all is said and done?

When the Green Bay Packers play after coming off a win as a road underdog in the last 5 years, their ATS record is 8-2, a 80% cover rate.

Here is the breakdown to show you what makes this situation “in play” on Sunday:

• Green Bay was a 1-point underdog in their last game in Atlanta against the Falcons
• The Packers won that game in dominating fashion, 48-21

In the last 5 years after Green Bay has won as a road underdog, they’ve covered the spread 80% of the time, making them a favorite to cover against the Bears on Sunday (the letters “ATS” mean “against the spread”).

Interestingly, of the 2 instances where Green Bay did not cover the spread in this situation, one of those times was actually against the Bears in December 2007 in Chicago at Soldier Field.

For this Sunday, though, all signs point to Green Bay covering the 3.5-point spread en route to Superbowl XLV.

Today is the first of a four-part series where we will examine this coming weekend’s NFL Conference Championship games using WiseStats db, a new product that allows you to use statistics and historical outcomes to better predict the winners of upcoming games. WiseStats db is a must-have weapon in your arsenal to make you a more intelligent bettor!

The first matchup this weekend is a classic showdown between NFC North rivals when wildcard winner Green Bay Packers march into Soldier Field to take on division winner Chicago Bears. These two teams have met twice this season, splitting the season series at 1 win apiece. The game has big implications, with the winner representing the NFC at Super Bowl XLV on February 6 at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas. It is expected to be the largest attended Superbowl in history, and President Obama has even declared his attendance should his favorite team – the Bears – get past the Packers this weekend.

So how do these teams match up, and what can we glean from historical outcomes to pick the winner of this game?

When the Green Bay Packers play as a 3.5 to 6.5 point favorite after a road win against a conference opponent, their record is 10-1, a 90.9% win rate.

Here is the breakdown to show you what makes this situation “in play” on Sunday:

• Most sportsbooks have Green Bay listed as 3.5-point favorites against the Bears (what is a point spread?)
• They won their last game 48-21, which was on the road
• Green Bay’s opponent in their last game was Atlanta, a fellow NFC Conference team

When Green Bay has found themselves in this situation in the past, they have won significantly more times than they’ve lost with a 90.5% winning percentage, making them a comfortable favorite to win on Sunday in Chicago.

So far, we’ve used WiseStats db exclusively to better predict who will win or lose games outright. Tomorrow, we’ll turn our attention to the concept of point spreads, and look yet again at the upcoming Packers/Bears matchup to see which team is likely to cover the spread using historical statistics to help reach a conclusion.

Yesterday, we looked at an NHL game situation between the Columbus Blue Jackets and Tampa Bay Lightning. It was the first example where we showed how WiseStats db can be used to pick the winner by seeing which team is likely to lose based on historical outcomes.

As suggested by the situation, Columbus indeed lost the game against Tampa Bay!

One of the huge benefits of WiseStats db is that it will automatically update the record of a situation for you after every game. So after last night’s loss to the Lightning, Columbus is now 2-16 as a road underdog on Tuesdays after a 1-game losing streak. WiseStats db makes it dead simple for you to monitor the ongoing performance of your favorite situations!

Today, we’ll turn to the NBA and look at another example of a situation where a team is likely to lose based on historical outcomes. The game we’ll look at is the LA Lakers against the Dallas Mavericks:

When the Dallas Mavericks play as home underdogs against a conference opponent with 1 day of rest after a road loss, their record is 1-12, a 7.7% win rate.

Here is the breakdown of this situation to see how it is “in play” tonight:

• Dallas is playing at home
• Most sportsbooks have Dallas listed as 3-point underdogs (what is a point spread?)
• They are playing the LA Lakers, a fellow Western Conference team
• Dallas last played on Monday, meaning they’ve had 1 day of rest
• In their last game on Monday, they played on the road in Detroit and lost 103-89

When Dallas has found themselves in this situation in the past, they have performed predictably poor as evidenced by a meager 7.7% winning percentage. Looking at it the other way, Dallas’ opponents win 92.3% of the time when Dallas is in this situation, suggesting that the Lakers are a solid pick for tonight’s game!

Tomorrow we’ll return with our first look at this weekend’s NFL Conference Championship games.

So far, we’ve given you examples of how WiseStats db can be used to predict the winning team by looking at historical game situations.

Trying to find situations where a team is likely to win is certainly the most common way to use WiseStats db, but by no means is it the only way. Today, we’ll take a look at an alternate approach you can take with WiseStats db to predict the outcome of a game: looking at game situations where a team performs horribly, and is expected to lose.

We’ll demonstrate what we mean by looking at an NHL game tonight between the Columbus Blue Jackets and Tampa Bay Lightning. Here’s the situation:

When the Blue Jackets have played on a Tuesday as a road underdog with a 1-game losing streak, their record is 2-15, a 11.8% win rate.

Here is the breakdown of this situation to see how it is “in play” tonight:

• Columbus is playing in Tampa Bay (so it’s on the road), and today is Tuesday
• Most sportsbooks have Columbus listed at odds of +150, making them the “underdog” against the Lightning (how to read odds)
• The Blue Jackets go into tonight on a 1-game losing streak. Their last game was a 6-5 loss to Detroit, and the game before that was a 3-2 win, also against Detroit.

So why are we getting excited about Columbus if they only win 11.8% of the time in this situation?

Because they are not expected to win tonight. If historical outcomes in this situation indicate the Blue Jackets’ future performance, then they are likely candidates to lose tonight’s game. You can use this information to infer that Tampa Bay is likely to win based on Columbus’ poor track record in this game situation.

And there you have it – in addition to using WiseStats db to try and determine which team will win, you can also use it to try and determine which team will lose. We will take a look at more ways to use WiseStats db in the coming days and weeks!

Over the last 4 days, we looked at game situations for each of this past weekend’s NFL divisional matchups to give you a glimpse into WiseStats db.

Today, we’ll take a look at one of tonight’s NBA games between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the LA Lakers. Here’s a situation suggesting that the Lakers are favored to win this game:

When the Lakers have played at home after playing a division opponent in the past 2 years, their record is 18-1, a 94.7% win rate.

Here is the breakdown of this situation:

• The Lakers are playing at home tonight at the Staples Center
• Their last game was yesterday against the LA Clippers, a fellow Pacific division opponent

Over the past 2 years, the Lakers have lost only once in 19 instances where this situation has been “in play” (the lone loss came against Boston in February 2010). By looking at past performances as a predictor of future outcomes, all signs point to the Lakers prevailing tonight.

Most sportsbooks are offering the Lakers at odds of -180, implying that they’re 64.3% favorites to win tonight against the Clippers (how to calculate implied odds). With the situation above suggesting that the Lakers have won 94.7% of the time in the past two years, then there is value in siding with the Lakers tonight.

Look out this week for more examples of situations from WiseStats db, when we look at more games from the NBA, NHL, and take a look at this upcoming weekend’s NFL Conference Championships.

Good luck tonight!

- WiseStats db

Over the past 3 days, we’ve offered you teasers of how WiseStats db can help make you a more intelligent sports bettor by looking at potentially profitable situations in each of this weekend’s NFL divisional round matchups.

Today, we take a look at the 4th and final game in what is widely acknowledged to be the most anticipated of the weekend’s matchups when the New York Jets travel to Foxborough to take on Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.

What makes this game so highly anticipated? There are 3 things that have pumped it up: it’s an AFC East divisional game; it has that always contentious NY-versus-Boston angle; and, there has been an unprecedented level of pregame trash-talking between both players and coaches from both teams. Yes, this one should produce fireworks.

But what does that mean when it comes time to pick a winner? Let’s take a look at a situation that is “in play” this game to help inform a decision:

When New England has played at home as a 7.0-9.5 point favorite after playing an AFC opponent, their record is 16-1, a 94.1% win rate.

As we’ve done with the other divisional round games, let’s break down this situation:

• New England is currently favored to win this game by 9 points according to most sportsbooks, so this falls within the range of 7.0 to 9.5 points (what is a point spread?)
• The Patriots are playing at home
• Their last game was on January 2 against the Miami Dolphins, who are an AFC team

This situation has produced an astonishing 94.1% win rate for the Patriots. At most sportsbooks, the odds to bet on the Patriots is -360, giving them an implied probability of 78.3% to win the game on Sunday (what are implied odds?).

If the Patriots are being given a 78.3% chance of winning the game by sportsbooks, but have a historical winning rate of 94.1% in the game situation, then there is said to be positive expected value by betting on them to win.

Finding situations like this where a game outcome has a positive expected value is something that only professional handicappers have been previously able to do.

But when WiseStats db launches this March, everybody will have the power to pick winners in a way that’s never been possible, even if you’re new to the world of sports betting. We can’t wait to open our doors to you!

Enjoy the games on Sunday!

- WiseStats db